Tech Shapers Hiring Predictions – March 2026

Hiring predictions: Contract Business Analysts are our canary in the coalmine

This is Sourced’s Tech Shapers with our hiring predictions, opinions, and experience of the Tech hiring levers across New Zealand. As Q1 2026 passes the half way mark, we look ahead to the rest of the year while reflecting on our predictions for this quarter, following a very subdued 2025. In this report, we look at whether we are finally beyond the bottom of the bell curve and on the way back up (remembering we were wondering the same thing this time last year), or are we still hiding under the rug when it comes to hiring?

What we will cover

Reviewing some key points from September 2025’s report:

“Overall hiring activity continues to remain low, with little to no growth.”

“Job seekers far outweigh opportunities, both in the contract and permanent job markets”

“…has the market moved on into growth, opportunity and market optimism or are we still at the bottom of the bell curve?”

This time it’s “Yes, somewhat and maybe not!”

As noted in September, 2025 delivered no growth. Overall, hiring stayed low, with job seekers far outnumbering roles in both the contract and permanent markets.

Short-term contracts and public sector hiring (short-term or fixed-term) created most of our recruitment activity. While many permanent employees wanted to move, most stayed risk-averse due to interest rate swings, cost-of-living pressure, and job insecurity. Even without those barriers, genuine opportunities to move were limited.

Christchurch continued to see strong migration from Wellington, more so than other centres. Fixed-term contracts remained a temporary way to cover short-burst work without committing to contractors or permanent headcount.

The great news is that daylight is appearing at the end of the tunnel.

Anecdotally, many candidates seem available, and many are now considering multiple roles. Those who remain in the market longer tend to be in specific industry verticals where demand is lower. Demand for contractors has cooled slightly, as moves toward long or fixed term, and permanent employment reappear.

Employers continue to favour local talent over international sources, with mid-career recruitment leading the way. Graduate and executive recruitment remains low.

As usual, there is something for everyone here so a lot to cover:

RECAP: Recruitment activity * Contract recruitment * Infrastructure & Support roles * International candidate markets * Staff retention

HOW WE SEE THINGS: * So what’s next? * Employer Intentions * The Great BA Availability * Salary! * Contracting

SUMMARY AND PREDICTION: * So how did we do? * The Market in a Nutshell

Recruitment activity

2025 was a year of subdued hiring and very contained market growth. Up until September, it still showed little to no life. However, starting in October, following our last TechShapers report, we began to see growth that has carried well into the first quarter of 2026. This was quite unexpected and has come from all sectors: public, private, fixed-term, permanent, and a smaller amount from contracting.

While we often look to candidate markets to explain changes in market conditions, this one has truly been employer-driven. We have seen too much ‘wait and see’ behavior. Essential work must commence: we need to spend the remaining budget before the new financial year, commit to projects that have been waiting, or invest in markets that are starting to perform well.

Fixed term engagement

Contract lengths have shifted from 3/6 months to 9/12 months or longer. These longer engagements typically accelerate work that has been needed and finally budgeted for. Permanent hires are occurring because of improving market conditions or to backfill roles that have been empty for some time.

Shorter term resource demands have diminished slightly in favour of longer term committments as work is well planned, budgeted and expected to span beyond mid-year. While 1-3 month initial engagements were the norm in 2025—predominantly focused on initiating work before the new financial year or tidying up previously mothballed projects—we are now seeing forward momentum.

Those in permanent and contract roles are still keeping their heads down and opting for stability over career progression or better work/salary conditions, meaning again that there is a slightly inflated sense of candidate availability with the unemployment level remaining high. Watch this space if this level of activity continues.

Those available and willing to move locally now find they have more opportunities to consider, with Software Development, Change Management, Project and Programme Management and Business Analysis all described as ‘buoyant’. Data specialities are also moving to the fore as businesses recognise the need for data-based decision-making through investment in BI and Data Analytics.

Canterbury’s market growth still appears to outpace Wellington’s, but it lags behind Auckland’s. Downsizing and redundancies seem largely complete now, suggesting a semblance of recovery.

Contract recruitment

Contracting opportunities steadily grew in the last 3 months of 2025, but dropped off by late January as longer-term project budgets were confirmed. Wellington-based contractors seeking work in Canterbury also dropped off meaning a better playing field for those living and working locally.  Organisations now look to move from the contractor model to fixed-term engagements and Business Analysts and Project Managers, typically the most sought-after contract resources, are available in greater volume. In a surprise twist, Senior PM/Programme Level roles have reappeared, indicating a higher level of investment in growth, transformation and delivery. Contracting demand, where it exists, tends to be at lower levels across Support, Infrastructure Deployment and Level 1-2 support.

Infrastructure & Support roles

Continuing from 2025, L1-3 Service Desk and Support roles have offered excellent growth opportunities for candidates in the early years of their careers. Redundancies in this area have finally ceased, therefore, we expect this market to become more competitive as available resource levels drop. Roles coming to market have been a mix of longer-term contracting and permanent, within the larger enterprise client space. Security roles, a star in a dry 2025 market, have dropped once again, with those moves having now been made and little growth on the horizon.

International candidate markets

Very little international recruitment is now happening. Post-study work visa holders are being overlooked for local, permanent resident candidates. While the candidate market continues to thin out as permanent employment increases, there is still a preference to hire those with PR or citizenship. While most of our larger client employers are now Accredited Employers, very few are actually using this now, many are even allowing it to lapse.

Our local markets feel much more stable due to fewer returning Kiwis from overseas, fewer now relocating from the North Island, and a balance of sorts having been achieved. Working Holiday Visa candidates have almost disappeared, perhaps reflecting economic conditions and lower demand as local talent is snapped up first.

Staff retention

Retention remains at an all-time high; this will be the big one to watch for 2026 as a sense of optimism returns to the economy. We are, however, in an election year, so this optimism may be short-lived. Although we know that many candidates are disengaged in their current employment and would move if possible, they still approach the job search cautiously. This being said, we are seeing new words entering the vocabulary—growth, aspiration—as candidates feel stagnant and are ready to push ahead in their careers.

While salary, benefits and work-life balance were not prominent factors in 2026 salary discussions, we are starting to see salary return to the table. Unfortunately, many have not seen any significant salary improvement since COVID times, and with the increased cost of living, are really starting to feel the pinch. In addition to role stagnation, watch this space as more and more start to pop their heads up.  While last year, those in stable and permanent roles who left tended to move offshore and were in the 20’s to early 30’s age group, we are now seeing those in the +30 year age bracket with young families begin to look locally. This is being driven by role stagnation, increased cost of living, a desire for home ownership and salaries that have stalled since COVID.

A rebalancing of power is happening, shifting from employer-candidate to a more level playing field. Where candidates are leaving, we need immediate replacements. While we are seeing little counter-offering, there are now market opportunities to pursue. Candidates who are moving are being rewarded with slight salary increases and roles that will project them forward.

So how did we do?

In the last Tech Shapers we noted the following ‘things to watch’: Through the second half of 2026 a short sharp rise in permanent or fixed term recruitment as new budgets are released for FY26 Yes – at least for now, it certainly seems this is the way we’re heading Those in stable, permanent employment popping their heads up to see if it’s safe yet to consider a move Yes, this is starting to happen now, driven by flattened salaries over the past 3 years alongside role stagnation Contract roles continuing to pick up momentum as a precursor to longer-term hiring decisions Yes and no. While we saw this in October to December, this has now settled as longer-term hiring gets underway   International recruitment will stay firmly in second place to local talent pools Yes. Local recruitment remains firmly in favour, with networks and agencies able to very quickly help those businesses brave enough to pop their heads over the trench wall. This resource is drying up fast, however, so we will keep an eye on where this sits at year’s end.   With our grown-up trousers on, we called the bottom of the dip Dare we say it? We think we have to. With 2 quarters of positive market intent and a visible drop in restructuring/closures, we think this is appropriate.

So what’s next?

Although permanent and contract recruitment halted eight months ago, we have seen a slow but steady improvement starting in October. Where employers proceeded with real caution in 2025, we are now seeing a more definite need for outcomes and a slight willingness to flex on requirements. It’s too soon to say whether this will continue through the year. Agency recruitment activity has lifted as employers who were tapping into their professional networks to pick up top talent affected by restructuring and reorganisation find this pool exhausted.

It’s very much a ‘great, but’ market right now. There is plenty of market activity, which we expect to continue for the next 3 months, but we must look to the second half of this year with caution as the election looms.

If there was ever a great time to make a big, bold permanent employment move, now is probably it.

If there was ever a time to begin your contracting career, now is definitely not it.

Employer Intentions

Six months ago the foot had completely come off the accelerator and onto the brake, this year we see at least a slow level of growth regarding resource addition. Clients are beginning to get a better sense of their FY26 budgets, and these budgets look ‘ok’. With most of those retrenched through redundancies in 2024/5 now back at work, competition for top-quality candidates seems higher as they are presenting; this might be the year they finally do.

Employers appear cautiously optimistic or realistic about their budgets, suggesting they have just enough to make incremental improvements over the year. While nobody is discussing significant investment, transformation or discarding old systems, we must at least keep moving forward and avoid further stagnation.

The great BA availability

As discussed in 2025, we again briefly mention the current number of Business Analysts in the market. BA’s are a really clear barometer of where a market is sitting, particularly in Christchurch. Securing an experienced Senior Business Analyst on a permanent basis is currently practically impossible. Those in the contracting space are readily available but unwilling to commit to permanent employment and those in permanent employment would not dream of going contracting. Fixed term contracts become an even harder prospect when neither party is willing to negotiate. So which will give first?

BA’s in all shapes and sizes are currently sitting in the contracting market with nowhere to go. While in 2025 many have resorted to short term Fixed Term Contract roles to try to ride out the storm, these options are diminishing as requirements become longer. A return to growth in the BA contract space, will indicate a return to market confidence generally, as internal teams are tapped out, and fixed term contracts fail to net additional team members. Watch this across Q2 of 2026. If contract BA work ramps up, we’ll know we are on the return to market confidence.

Salary

While salaries held steady or softened throughout 2024/2025, this trend is now being challenged, prompting a smaller share of permanently employed individuals to begin seeking new opportunities. Those actively looking are seeking increases to account for CPI and to remove financial burdens. Since we haven’t seen any salary growth since the 2022–2023 hike, we are now 3 years beyond that point, and this is starting to bite many employees.

Contractor hourly rates have been the most impacted, with increased competition and a dropping demand. We may see further pressure on these rates if conditions don’t improve in the coming months

Contracting

Contractors who usually string projects together across the year are finding that work demand is slightly lower. When requirements arise, however, they are for longer periods. Programme and Project Managers are seeing a resurgence after 2-3 years of absolute market lows. These roles tend to be held onto once appointed.

As we’ve discussed in some detail, it’s a tough time right now to be a contractor not in work. Sourced has a considerable stable of contractors. Fortunately, the majority remain in long-term engagements that roll over in line with key projects they are assigned to. We are seeing extensions shortened, now often month by month as longer-term planning firms up FTC or permanent requirements.

While the second half of last year saw more contractors enter the public sector than the private sector, we now see that trend reversing. We are unsure whether demand for contractors will bounce back over the next six months, or if permanent and FTC roles will continue to lead. Either way, engagement terms are becoming a bit longer, as employers plan with greater financial certainty. Where permanent employment does happen, watch for a high level of employer selectiveness challenged by candidates who won’t simply move for roles but will seek growth, leadership and upward salary offers.

Employers feeling confident that they can get everything they want at the salary they wish to pay may find this is no longer the case.